Data from City of Austin shows a continued decline in violent crime for the second year
As the Austin City Council prepares to vote on expanded funding for the city police department, recent data dispels the narrative pushed by the Austin Police Association that staffing needs to be expanded to reduce crime. In partnership with the Austin Justice Coalition, we urge Austin residents to demand their representatives reject the $218 Million Austin Police Union Contract.
Debunking the “Crime Increase”
The data does not support the narrative that there is surging crime in Austin.
While some offenses have seen rises (i.e., motor vehicle theft), violent crime rates have actually decreased both in the short and long term. According to data we sourced from the City of Austin’s Open Data Portal, violent crime has continued to decrease nearly 10% between August 2023 and August 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. Specific categories, such as aggravated assault, saw a 12% reduction. While there was a slight uptick in homicide during the period in question, examining data from 2022 shows that homicides have dropped 13% from the post-COVID-19 crime spike experienced nationwide.
The Solution: Reducing Financial Stress & Improving Housing Stability
Crime is not a function of more or less policing but of deteriorating social conditions, increased financial stress, and economic instability. Investing in other safety domains causes less harm and is more practical and cost-effective.
For example, research continues to show that investing in social services yields better outcomes. For instance, spending on social and public health services and its association with homicide in the USA: an ecological study finds that $10,000 in additional spending results in a 0.87 reduction in homicides per 100,000. In contrast, another study, Police Force Size, and Civilian Race, only finds that the additional hiring of a law enforcement officer (national average $45,000) results in a 0.1 reduction in homicides per 100,000.
The city of Austin needs to address the broader systemic issues beyond policing that impact communities.
For instance, the increasing rent burden in Austin is a significant contributor to community instability. From 2008 to 2022, the rent burden increased 22%, which has created significant financial stress disproportionately on Black and Brown residents.
Safety extends far beyond crime rates. True, lasting safety comes from investing in community well-being, affordable housing, and accessible public resources. Increasing police presence alone won’t achieve that; we must address the root causes to create lasting security for everyone.
Data Table
OFFENSE | SEP 1, 2021 – AUG 31, 2022 | SEP 1, 2022 – AUG 31, 2023 | SEP 1, 2023 – AUG 31, 2024 | 1-YEAR CHANGE | 1-YEAR %CHANGE | 2-YEAR CHANGE | 2-YEAR % CHANGE | |
Violent crime | 4535 | 4289 | 3879 | -410 | -9.6 | -656 | -14.5 | |
Aggravated assault | 2915 | 2832 | 2497 | -335 | -11.8 | -418 | -14.3 | |
Homicide | 70 | 50 | 61 | 11 | 22.0 | -9 | -12.9 | |
Rape | 604 | 515 | 464 | -51 | -9.9 | -140 | -23.2 | |
Robbery | 946 | 892 | 857 | -35 | -3.9 | -89 | -9.4 | |
Property crime | 34404 | 33603 | 32328 | -1275 | -3.8 | -2076 | -6.0 | |
Burglary | 4739 | 4619 | 4166 | -453 | -9.8 | -573 | -12.1 | |
Larceny | 24643 | 22877 | 21464 | -1413 | -6.2 | -3179 | -12.9 | |
Motor vehicle theft | 5022 | 6107 | 6698 | 591 | 9.7 | 1676 | 33.4 | |
Data Source: City of Austin – Open Data Portal |
References
- Chalfin, A., Hansen, B., Weisburst, E. K., & Williams, M. C., Jr. (2020). Police Force Size and Civilian Race (Working Paper No. 28202). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28202
- Sipsma, H. L., Canavan, M. E., Rogan, E., Taylor, L. A., Talbert-Slagle, K. M., & Bradley, E. H. (2017). Spending on social and public health services and its association with homicide in the USA: An ecological study. BMJ Open, 7(10), e016379. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-016379